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英国退欧:伦敦航运服务业或面临挑战

发布时间:2016-06-25 18:19:39  来源:航运界     专家:刘倩文
 
What is certain is this event has stirred up the world. What is uncertain is how exactly it will impact our business and life. While the dust is up in the air, we can try to envision a future through the dust.
 
The natural reaction of most human being is that we don’t like change and we don’t like uncertainty, thus the current sentiment is mainly a negative one. 
1.British people have become poorer overnight (Pound dropped 15% at its peak) 
2.UK’s stock market dropped – signaling that Mr. Market is not supportive Brexit. 
3.Over-seas investments in UK manufacturing sector are expected to flatten out. 
4.Morgan Stanley denies moving jobs to Dublin and Frankfurt, but everyone is expecting a job cut in the City of London. 
Could this trigger a dynamics of trade protectionism? Which may lead to another cycle of global recession?  Resulting in mass unemployment and consequently social unrest?
 
While we must stay alert to the changes confronting us, we shouldn’t focus on the negative possibilities alone, since changes present opportunities.  
1.The British people have become poorer overnight (The Pound dropped 15% against the US dollar at one point) -> a devalued currency makes British exports more competitive. (.e.g. education, services industries, manufacturing). 
2.UK’s stock market dropped signaling that Mr. Market is not supportive of Brexit. -> European stocks have dropped even more than the UK stock on the same day, it may mean that the market has more faith in the UK economy than in the EU economy.  
3.Over-seas investments in the UK manufacturing sector are expected to flatten out.-> this is bad news for tier 2 and 3 cities, rebounding from decades of industrial slowdown.  However as mentioned above a factorable exchange rate of the Pound may increase the competitiveness of UK product. 
4.Morgan Stanley denies moving jobs to Dublin and Frankfurt, but everyone is expecting a job cut in the City of London. -> The City of London has always been ‘adept at adapting’ to challenging and changing circumstances, the infrastructure within the City is not easily shifted to Frankfurt or Dublin. 
5.Could this trigger a dynamics of trade protectionism? Which may lead to another cycle of global recession?  Resulting in  mass unemployment and consequently social unrest?-> trade protectionism happens in every recession, every time when people feel insecure.   
 
Many are asking if the UK can have another Referendum to overturn Brexit.  Technically, the answer is yes but in reality it is very unlikely, both the Remain Camp and Leave Camp have agreed that they will stand behind the result of this EU referendum. So let’s believe it is going to be the case. What is the impact it will bring to Shipping? 
1.In the short term, very limited impact, it will be at least 2 years until the UK and EU settle all the negotiation, before this happens, it will be difficult to quantify any trade impact. Over the space of two years, how EU would look like is also an huge uncertainty. 
2.Trade protection with EU may expand British trade with other destinations which in turn could have an positive affect on the shipping demand in relation to the UK.
3.The shipping industry is mostly regulated by the international bodies, like IMO; EU has limited impact on global shipping. 
4.Shipping Finance and other services industries that are clustered in London will face a shakeup. There is limited choices for huge international banks to find a city to put their headquarters, as it requires transparent and sophisticated legal system, insurance system, strong central bank and professional and unbiased media. If London’s role on those areas are going to be weakened, it will be a capital and talent drain in London, which the UK government will take whatever it cost to prevent it from happening. 
 
It is pointless to judge ‘Brexit’ itself as right or wrong.  The impact of this event will not be only limited to the UK, or the EU, it will have a profound impact of the global economy and political arrangement. Therefore it is not only the responsibility of the UK but of every county, and of us as a collective to try to make the best of this development.  
 
When you look at the demographic of the vote, the younger generation voted to stay and the older generation, particularly those outside of London, voted for the separation. The younger generation has demonstrated clearly what is evidence to us all in the shipping industry that prosperity to a large extent depends on trade, integration, open boarders, and exchange goods and ideas. It is our responsibility as the member of shipping industry to act as individuals and as a collective in maintaining this world view as the fundamentals of global trade. 
 
Above comments are not Drewry views, but based on conversations hold after the Brexit with colleagues and friends in London and Asia. 

参考译文:

确定的是英国退欧引起了全球的震动,不确定的是我们的工作和生活,具体会受到什么样的影响。
 
人们通常的反映都是排斥改变的,排斥不确定因素的,所以现在的主流舆论是悲观的。
 
1.英国人民在一夜之间就穷了许多(唱票当天英镑兑美元在高峰期跌了15%)
2.英国股票市值缩水,市场反对Brexit
3.来英国的投资预计停止
4.摩根斯坦利已辟谣,但是大多数人都认为伦敦金融城会迎来大批的裁员。
5.这些会不会导致地方保护主义?导致全球再次进入经济危机?导致高失业率?导致社会动荡?
 
我们必须要对我们所面临的挑战保持警觉,但我们不应该过度的专注于负面的可能性,任何挑战都是机遇的另一种表现形式。
 
1.英镑价值缩水,让英国的出口更有竞争力
2.在英国股市下跌的同时,欧洲股市跌的更多,说明市场对英国经济更有信心。
3.生产业海外投资减少对英国二线三线城市是坏消息,但是更有竞争力的英镑可能会给英国的生产业带来新的机会。
4.英国金融城一直以来都具有很强的适应性,并且把金融中心成规模的迁移需要有很多的金融基础设施,这不是一朝一夕的工作。
5.贸易的保护主义每当经济危机时就会盛行起来,每当人们感觉没有安全感的时候就会盛行。
 
很多人在讨论我们是否可以在公投一次,技术上可能性有,实际上可能性很小。两边阵营都是基于一次投票结果会被认真执行的方针下开始启动公投的。所以让我们暂且相信,这就是事实了,那么这对我们航运有什么影响呢?
 
1.短期之内,没有直接影响,具体条令的谈判至少要持续两年,在具体条令落地前,很难量化对航运的影响。并且两年之后的欧洲是什么样的,也是一个很大的变数。
2.英国与欧洲间的贸易不畅可能会增加英国与其他贸易伙伴的合作,可能会增加运距,从而导致海运需求上升。
3.航运市场的管控机构大多是在联合国层面的,例如IMO,所以离开欧盟的影响不大。
4.航运金融和其他驻扎在伦敦的航运服务业会受到影响。和国际银行选择总部所在地一样,航运中心需要一个透明、精致全面的法治系统、保险系统,强大的中央银行,专业正规的媒体。如果伦敦在这些方面的功能受到削弱,伦敦将面临极大的挑战,英国政府会想尽一切办法阻止这样的情况发生。
5.评价脱欧这件事英国人民做的是对是错没有多大意义。英国脱欧带来的影响不光是给英国的,欧洲的,它的影响是全世界的,经济的政治的。所以不光是英国人,其他国家都有义务让这件事往好的方向发展。
 
从公投的年龄分层看,年轻人是支持英国留在欧盟的,住在欧洲以外的老年人支持分开。英国的年轻人很清楚展示了他们的信念和航运的基本信念是一致的。航运的兴旺,比其他任何行业,都更依托于国贸易,全球化的经济,开放的国门,开放的思想。我们作为航运业的一员都有义务来维护这一价值,来维护世界贸易的基本基石。

注:上面评论不是德路里的官方观点,而是作者在英国退欧公投后基于和伦敦及亚洲同事、朋友的对话、讨论中所做的总结
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